Technology does not emerge in a vacuum. It has a life cycle that is measurable. Change is ever present. It can have many personalities, creative, disruptive, distructive, evolutionary, revolutionary, change maker, even distopian. Policy guidelines, practices, standards rules, regulations and compliance can slow progress but cannot stop it. We are undergoing a technology shift, creating a revolution enabling us to do greater things to better serve the environment, society and governance. "Black swan" events are ever present and the technology life cycle is perpetual!
A gap emerges when the technology life cycle is out of phase with the product life cycle.
Business implications of out-of-phase life cycles.
The R&D phase of new aircraft technology is characterized by heavy R&D expenditures which can be in the range of $10Bn to $15Bn.The mature phase can be extended at a cost by repurposing aircraft from pax to freighter, civil to military applications and other uses.
Product life cycle.
The benchmark life cycle for commercial aircraft is 30 years, 5 years for type certification, 20 years service and 5 years phase out.... 28,000 registered commercial aircraft are powered by gas turbine engines.
Gas turbine technology life cycle is in the mature phase.
The gas turbine engine technology life cycle is in the mature phase and will enter a decline phase. Net-Zero technology life cycle is in the R&D phase.
TheNet-Zero engine technology life cycle is in the R&D phase and will enter an ascent phase. Energy sources for Net-Zero aircraft may be biofuel, battery, synthetic or green hydrogen. Gas turbine engines could be phased out and replaced by Net-Zero power by 2050, but its possible some Net-Zero products may not be successful.